Scorching Southern California weather could lead to earlier fire season
Scorching Southern California weather could lead to earlier fire season
Paris Barraza, USA TODAYMon, March 16, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
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Scorching Southern California weather could lead to earlier fire season
An "unusual, early-season heat wave" blanketing Southern California for several days could play a role in ushering in an earlier wildfire season due to vegetation drying out sooner than typical, experts said.
Swaths of Southern California are under various heat-related advisories and warnings as places like Palm Springs and Big Bear Lake are expected to break temperature records in the coming days, ending winter with weather that’s forecasted to be a “historic March event,” according to the National Weather Service on Monday, March 16.
The heat wave follows Southern California seeing average temperatures up to 8 degrees above normal throughout December 2025 and January and as the state — which was drought free at the start of the year — sees dry conditions creep in its northeastern reaches, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Why hot temperatures could lead to early blazes in SoCal
Amid the heat wave come highs forecasted to be more than 20 degrees above normal for this time of year in Southern California, according to the NWS. The elevated temperatures are expected to continue through Friday, March 20, the NWS said.
The upcoming warmth, paired with recent Santa Ana wind events late winter, is going to speed up curing, said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather lead long-range expert. Curing is the process where “green vegetation dries out,” which typically begins in Southern California during May and June — coinciding with temperatures rising and rain stopping, he said.
This means Southern California could ultimately face wildfires earlier in the year with curing turning that green vegetation into fuel, he said.
March isn’t over yet, and Pastelok noted the possibility of “a little” rain in the coming weeks. A significant rainfall event could potentially impact the timing of curing, but the chances of a significant rainfall event are low, he said.
Cal Fire Battalion Chief Brent Pascua said that it doesn’t take much as far hot weather and dry wind to ultimately dry out fuels.
“Right now, with the warmer temperatures, we're keeping a close eye on things,” Pascua said. “Our fuels are not quite cured or dried out just yet, they still have a lot of fuel moisture in them, which is a good thing. But we're keeping a very close eye on the lack of rainfall we're receiving right now, and what that means is our peak fire season could come a lot earlier than normal.”
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A few weeks of hot and dry temperatures can “easily cure the grass, making it ready to ignite or being a fire hazard sooner than most years that we’ve seen,” Pascua said.
When is wildfire season in Southern California?
Fire season in Southern California isn’t really a season but rather all year, Pascua said.
For some visual clues, take note: Vegetation that goes from green to yellow to brown is the fuel drying out and curing, said Pascua. That’s how you’ll know it’s ready to burn, and therefore, at its most dangerous.
The National Interagency Fire Center’s national fire potential outlook for April, May and June had welcome news: California is not one of the several states that face "above-normal" wildfire potential during these coming months. However, the most recent outlook issued was at the beginning of March, prior to mid-March heat wave that NWS called “unusual.”
What Southern Californians do face is a chance of above normal temperatures for the same period, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Also at play this year: California’s diminished snowpack, which helps supply the state with its water needs, according to the California Department of Water Resources. Yet the snowpack doesn’t just impact water supply. According to the National Integrated Drought Information System, the loss of snow means soils and plants can dry out earlier than usual.
“Due to the record-breaking warmth this year, high temperatures can lead to increased and rapid dry down of the landscape, again leading to an early start to the fire season,” according to the NIDIS.
Paris Barraza is a reporter covering Los Angeles and Southern California for the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at pbarraza@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: SoCal heat wave could lead to earlier wildfire season
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